Predicting Risk of Death from Cardiovascular Disease:
 a physician's calculator

Source:  "A score for predicting risk of death from cardiovascular disease in adults with raised blood pressure, based on individual patient data from randomised controlled trials". Pocock SJ et al. BMJ Vol 323 14 July 2001 pages 75-81.

The risk score is an objective aid to assessing an individual's risk of cardiovascular disease, including stroke and coronary heart disease.  It is useful for physicians when determining an individual's need for antihypertensive treatment and other management strategies for cardiovascular risk.

  • Objective:  To create a risk score for death from cardiovascular disease that can be easily used.
  • Design:  Data from eight randomised controlled trials of antihypertensive treatment
  • Setting:  Europe and North America
  • Participants:  47,088 men and women from trials that had differing age ranges and differing eligibility criteria for blood pressure
  • Main Outcome Measure:  1639 deaths from cardiovascular causes during a mean 5.2 years of follow up
  • Results:  see original article (BMJ Vol 323 14 July 2001 pages 75-81.)
Select Gender
Select gender and age range (years)
Select smoking status, gender and age range
. .. .
Select your Systolic Blood Pressure range (mm Hg)
Select gender and Total Cholesterol Concentration range (mmols/L)
Select gender and Height range (in meters)
. . .
Select gender and Creatinine Concentration range (umol/L)
History of Myocardial Infarction
History of Stroke
. . .
Left Ventricular Hypertrophy
Select gender and Diabetes status
Antihypertensive Drugs taken?
. . .

HOW DID THE PATIENT SCORE?

The score explained.

Risk Score Probability (%) of dying from cardiovascular disease in 5 years
0 0.04
5 0.07
10 0.11
15 0.19
20 0.31
25 0.51
30 0.84
35 1.4
40 2.3
45 3.7
50 6.1
55 9.8
60 15.6
65 24.5
70 37.0

Compare the calculator at http://www.riskscore.org.uk


Did you find the utility above useful?

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 1 January 2000.

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Created by Roy Price, EthiCal Nutrition Services, POBox 1326, Alice Springs, Australia